(Reuters) – U.S. central banks are forecasting a more limited rate cut in 2025 rather than the full percentage of cuts they presented in 2024, given slower progress toward the 2% inflation target, a still-strong labor market and plenty of uncertainty . On the potential impact of tax cuts, tariffs and other economic policies in Donald Trump’s second term.
Here’s a look at Fed policymakers’ comments since the last rate-setting decision, sorting them under the labels “dove” and “hawk” as rough shorthand for monetary policy stances. A dove is more focused on the risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates sooner, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about cutting rates.
Designations are based on comments and published records; click on the photos in this graphic for more details. Scroll to the bottom of this story to see how Reuters’ numbers have changed in each category.
Pigeon Dovish Centrist Falcon Falcon
Christopher Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman,
Waller, Governor, Fed Chairman, Governor,
permanent voter: permanent permanent voter:
“If inflation is selective: “I think we should be
down and we have to be careful
but I think about the place in the labor market
stays strong, you think it changes from here
We can think of this as a new phase of politics
restart velocity and we will move toward a
A few deficits more neutral to be careful
months later more about regulation…We
now… I’m not cutting it.” December 18, but also necessary
I think it can be avoided from March 2024
be completely prejudiced
excepted.” January is coming
16, 2025 administration
future policies”.
January 9, 2025
Lisa Cook, John Williams, Jeffrey Schmidt,
Governor, New York Fed Kansas City Fed
permanent elector: President, President, 2025
“I think we can be permanent voters: “I am
The voter dares to continue: “I’m a supporter
we are more cautiously waiting for this regulatory policy
more disinflation is gradual
cuts.” January 6, will move forward, forward and only
voter: “Is there a voter: No public voter: Since then
Evidence of comments made in September, “The
overheating of economic data of monetary policy
the economy? So it entered from October 2024
far, stronger lately… and
months have inflation figures
high print is not much
evidence.” Jan. more than desired. Thus
10, 2025 I changed
evaluation
risks.” January 10
2025
Michael Barr, Beth Hammack,
Vice Chairman of the Cleveland Fed
Control, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: No public
There is no public comment
comments on monetary policy
Monetary policy since December 2024.
From May 2024.
Adriana Coogler, Lori Logan,
Governor, Dallas Fed
permanent elector: President, 2026
“We are completely selective: There is no public
we know what we mean
no monetary policy
yet – as of November 2024, none.
popping
champagne
everywhere….And horse
at the same time
… we want
unemployment
stay rate
where is it.”
January 4, 2025
Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari,
Boston Fed Minneapolis Fed
President, 2025 President, 2026
voter: “With voter: No public
makes comments about the economy
monetary policy in a good place
in total and since November 2024.
politics anymore
closer
neutral position,
i look
current nature
from uncertainty
as a summoner
gradually and
patient approach
for
policy-making”.
January 9, 2025
Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin,
Philadelphia Fed Richmond Fed
President, 2026 President, 2027
voter: “This is the voter: The
appropriate to December consumer
We get some price index information
the right to a break” continues
now and see how we have a story
things shook up, that is
out.” January 9 that inflation
2025 is coming down
towards the goal”.
January 15, 2025
Raphael Bostic,
Atlanta Fed
President, 2027
voter: No public
comments about
monetary policy
From December 2024.
Mary Daly, Sec
Francisco Fed
President, 2027
voter: “To this
period, I would
doesn’t want to see
don’t slow down any more
in labor
market.” January 4
2025
Notes: Fed policymakers cut the policy rate in December to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. Forecasts showed that most policymakers expect to cut interest rates by half a percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.00% by the end of this year, a smaller cut than they saw in September.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chairman and vice-chairmen, have a standing vote at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and discuss monetary policy at meetings, but only five voted, including the New York Fed president and four who vote for one-year terms at a time, according to a rotation schedule.
Reuters has changed policy designations over time based on new interpretations and evolving circumstances. Below is Reuters’ count of policymakers attending recent Fed meetings in each category.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
January ’25 0 3 9 7 0
’24 December 0 2 10 7 0
November ’24 0 0 13 5 0
September ’24 0 1 12 5 0
May-July ’24 0 1 10 6 1
March ’24 0 1 11 5 1
January ’24 0 2 9 4 1
’23 December 0 2 9 4 1
October 23/November 0 2 7 5 2
September ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
December 22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)